And The Winner Is…


The Lone Cactus

Helmut Norpoth is probably a name you don’t know offhand. It’s alright. He’s a professor at little Stony Brook University in Stony Brook, New York. There really wouldn’t be any reason for you to know Helmut unless you live in Stony Brook or went to that university and had him for a class. But he’s a pretty important guy when it comes to political science and presidential elections.

That’s because since 1912, his model as to who will win the election has been right 25 of 27 times. The only two times it’s failed was in 1960 when John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon (he had Nixon winning), and in 2000 when George W. Bush won his first term (he had Al Gore winning).

What sets Helmut apart from everyone else is, he doesn’t care what the polls say. He cares what the primaries say. He says it’s all about…

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